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Andrew Luck and His Contract

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

First, let me say if you look at raw interception numbers as a defining stat for QB's in 2016 you're wrong. You're so wrong you should spend your Sunday's at an opera and no where near the NFL.  If QB A throws more passes than QB B then it is likely he will throw more interceptions, that's relatively simple. It's so simple it gives me a headache when I hear about Andrew Luck's interceptions.  Because last year wasn't a full season, we won't count that on, it's unfair too. When you look at Luck's interception percentage (how likely a QB is to throw an interception on any given pass) it lines up really well with the arguably the NFL's best QB. Luck got a lot of money, 87 million guaranteed in fact, and he is worth every penny.  Great players are paid a lot in the NFL to keep the team playing at a high level so billionaire owner can add more billions to their net worth, and Luck does that. 

Andrew Luck has taken the Colts to the playoffs every season he started all 16 games. He wins, plain and simple. 3 straight 11-5 seasons, and he's done it without the benefit of a top tier defense.  The insane thing about Andrew Luck, is how the Colts have completely leaned on him in the beginning of his career.  I've yet to find a QB who in their first 3 seasons threw over 550 attempts each year.  Dan Marino comes closest throwing 567 and 564 in his 2nd and 3rd seasons but he only threw the ball 293 times as a rookie. Andrew Luck as a rookie, threw 627 times. His 2nd and 3rd years he threw 570 and 616 times.  The closest comp for Andrew Luck is The Chico Kid, Aaron Rodgers.  But even with Rodgers there's a caveat, he sat the bench for 3 seasons behind a hall of famer.

In Aaron Rodgers first 3 seasons as a starter, he attempted 536, 541, and 475 passes. His interception percentage, 2.4, 1.3, and 2.3. Now let's look at Luck's interception percentage those his first 3 years, 2.9,1.6, and 2.6. Not too far off right? Aaron Rodgers next 3 seasons were as followed, 502 attempts 1.2 %, 552 attempts 1.4%, and 520 1.0%. Don't think I'm assuming Luck will match Aaron Rogers level of play, in this regard Rodgers is the greatest ever. But, I do think it is more than fair to assume Luck will progress much like Rodgers did.  If the Colts can get anything resembling a running game started, and bring Lucks attempts down to 500-520 like Rodgers are, Luck will win a Super Bowl. That 475 Pass attempt year was Rodgers Super Bowl year. 50 Super Bowls have gone by now, and 50 teams have shown you have to be able to run the ball fairly competently and play defense.

Alright, let's assume Luck doesn't match Rodgers production. Not many QB's if any ever will. The next closest comp is Drew Brees, and not early Drew Brees either, we're talking some of his best years Drew Brees years, a future hall of famers best years.  Drew Brees 3 biggest attempt numbers for any season, 652, 635, and 659. In those 3 years his interception percentage was; 2.8, 2.7, and 2.3.  Luck is already right in line with Drew Brees before he really starts going, and he doesn't have the benefit of Sean Payton as Head Coach. Brees is a future first ballot Hall of Famer, Luck is on his way to that as well.  Would you make a future first ballot hall of fame QB the NFL's highest paid player? I would every day of the week, the Colts are betting on Luck moving forward, and that's a safe bet. Oh, and Brees Super Bowl year, was the year he attempted the least amount of passes in New Orleans.

Both Rodgers and Brees  are due for extensions soon, they'll probably surpass Luck in total money, then Luck will pass those when he is set to renegotiate again when he's 32. The market sets the Contract, and the market set that Luck could have gotten more, young QB's like him don't come along very often.  In his last full season as a starter Luck threw for 4,761 yards, 40 TD's and had an interception percentage of 2.6. Brees didn't touch the 40 TD mark until his 11th year in the NFL, his interception rate that year was 2.7. For Rodgers, it was his 7th year, his interception rate that year was 1.6.  The level of production Luck has hit this early in his career is rare, and people pay a premium for rare items. The Colts did that in their franchise QB and were smart to do so.

Thanks for reading.  

 

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