Interesting question for a 49ers fan to ask, and answer. My bias tells me both; "I hope Seattle gives him 100 Million guranteed." While also telling me "He's over rated and he's not elite." The truth is somewhere in the middle. What the team has accomplished in his 3 year run as the starter is incredible, it's been franchise altering, how much of that is based on him is the question that needs to be answered. Let's see if I can answer it.
First, from a business aspect, a Russell Wilson extension is a no brianer. He's as loved in Seattle as Derek Jeter was in New York, or Kobe Bryant in Los Angeles. He has the top selling jersey in the NFL, and you can't go anywhere in Seattle without seeing one. He's so popular in Seattle they sell his Texas Rangers jersey at Seattle Team stores. In this sense, the size of the check written by Paul Allen would gurantee a return off the field. How much of that is a factor is unknown, but I for one think it matters, and is something to keep an eye on.
Secondly, we have the on field production value. The Seahawks narrowly lost a chance at Back to Back Super Bowls on a bad pass, but even worse play call. Overall in that game Wilson wasn't very good, completing only 57% of his passes, with that said he still put the team in position to win. For the most part he did his job, as he does most of the time. Posting a Career QB rating of 98.6, and completing 63% of his passes while being a terror to tackle when a defense gets pressure. If we look at the most recent monster QB contract signed by Cam Newton, it would indicate Wilson deserves more. Newton got 63 Million guranteed, while posting a less than stellar 85.4 Career QB rating, and completing just 59.5% of his passes. By comparison, Wilson is better, and deserves more, and I'm sure his agent will push for it.
With all of that said, I beleive the next year sees Wilson finish out his rookie contract and put Seattle in a position where they are forced to franchise him, or pay him what he wants, similar to Flacco in 2013. If I am wrong, and a deal gets done before then, look for Wilson to sign a contract around what Cam Newton got, and as hard as it is for this 49ers fan to say it, he deserves it, because he's the perfect player for a franchise and a city that hasn't had a franchise player since Kevin Durant was stolen away.